Boswell's workload stays modest in a game scripted for Pittsburgh to control the clock. Boswell averages 1.6 field goals and 2.5 PATs per game, and with the Steelers implied for ~24 points, he's unlikely to exceed 8 kicking points. Atlanta's run defense gives up more than average, which keeps Pittsburgh's offense on the ground and limits scoring opportunities that would push Boswell into extra-point territory. A methodical, ground-heavy game script keeps him under the line.

Rodgers is a 3-year baseline of 1.5 TDs per game, but Atlanta's pass defense gives up more than average to receivers—a sign they're not getting torched through the air. In a neutral game script with no trailing urgency pushing Pittsburgh to air it out, Rodgers doesn't need to sling multiple touchdown passes to manage the game. He can get to one and still cash this Under; the bar is whether he reaches a second, and Atlanta's above-average secondary makes that a harder ask.

Folk needs a big game to clear 5.5 kicking points—that's 2+ field goals and 2+ PATs, or some combination that adds up to 6 points. The Jets' implied total sits around 20, which is low but not impossible; if New York scores three times (two FGs, one TD), Folk hits 5 points and needs just one more PAT to cash. The path exists, but it requires Folk to be busy all afternoon in a game where his team has to stay competitive.

Dowdle is a workhorse back with 13.9 carries and 2.9 targets per game, totaling 80 yards of production. Pittsburgh's run defense is about average, and Dowdle's consistent volume—both on the ground and in the passing game—puts him in position to exceed 58 yards. His role as the primary back in a neutral script generates enough touches to clear the line.

Pittsburgh's opening drive should move the ball against Atlanta's thin secondary and edge-rusher losses. The Falcons are missing Keshawn Banks (DE) and have three linebackers out (Bertrand, Bowman just activated off Achilles, James Pearce suspended), leaving their front seven undermanned and their coverage thin early. Pittsburgh's passing attack—6.25 yards per attempt this season—faces a secondary that allowed 6.46 yards per attempt to Atlanta's own offense, a sign of soft coverage underneath. The Steelers' opening script typically leans on early rhythm passes to establish tempo; with Atlanta's linebacker corps depleted, short and intermediate routes should find room. Pittsburgh's 40% third-down conversion rate gives it a chance to extend drives and stay on the field, and a fast-paced opening half—both teams average 56–60 plays per game—means more possessions and more scoring opportunities in the first 30 minutes.

Folk won't rack up a second PAT in a low-scoring Jets game. New York is implied for just under 20 points, which means Folk is looking at one, maybe two scoring drives all game—and even then, a field goal doesn't guarantee a PAT. At 1.4 PATs per game on the season, Folk clears 1.5 only when his offense is clicking hard; a tight, defensive matchup keeps him to a single conversion or none.

Pittman is a high-volume target at 6.7 per game, averaging 9.9 yards per catch, and he's been a focal point in training camp. Atlanta's pass defense gives up more than average to receivers, and Pittman's consistent role as a primary option means he'll see enough targets to hit a 17-plus-yard reception. The volume and matchup create multiple opportunities for one bigger play.

Robinson's 133-yard projection masks a trailing script that will sideline his ground game. Atlanta is an underdog in Pittsburgh, which means the Falcons will be forced to pass early and often—a game script that shrinks his rushing volume and limits his ability to rack up yards on the ground. His 16.9 carries per game and 87 rushing yards per game are season averages; in a negative game flow, he'll see fewer carries and shorter runs, and his receiving work won't compensate enough to push past 121 total yards.

Atlanta's backup QB and a Pittsburgh defense built to stop the run keep the Falcons quiet early. Atlanta is still deciding between Michael Penix Jr. and Tua Tagovailoa at QB heading into Week 1, and that uncertainty—combined with a backup likely taking the field—dulls an offense that already ranks 15th in scoring. Pittsburgh's defense has allowed just 0.024 EPA per play (better than league average) and sits 18th in total points allowed; the Steelers' front is built to stack the box and disrupt rhythm, which is exactly what a shaky opening drive needs to avoid. Atlanta's 47% run rate and 30-minute time-of-possession style means fewer plays and fewer scoring chances in a compressed first half, especially if the Falcons fall behind early and are forced to abandon the ground game. A 9.5-point first-half total is a low bar, but a backup QB, a run-heavy script, and a defense that doesn't break early combine to keep Atlanta's opening window quiet.

Dotson's baseline is thin, but ESPN's early projection of 26 yards per game sits well above the 14.5 line, and a single strong game is all this needs. His 14.6 yards per catch is a solid rate, and while his 1.3 catches per game is modest, the Steelers' pass defense is average—not a shutdown unit—leaving room for variance in a neutral script. A 15-yard game is within his ceiling and doesn't require an outlier performance; it's a lean on his upside in a matchup without a stingy secondary to suppress him.