The Edge. Genius's sharpest reads.
Updated 13m ago · 39 games · 51 markets priced
⌘K
The Spotlightthe 4–5★ edges Genius is most confident in
◆ #1 · Top read
+4.3pp
edge
Market 50%→Genius 54%
Genius read Wrobleski's 4.10 xERA reveals a pitcher due for regression—his recent 1.89 ERA in five starts is unsustainable luck. Seattle's hitters all carry xwOBAs between .346 and .361 against lefties, and they've scored 3.7 runs per game over the last 10, close to their season 4.01 average despite recent struggles. Castillo's 3.64 ERA over his last five starts and 4.42 xERA will suppress the Dodgers' lineup; the pitcher-friendly Dodger Stadium (97 park factor, cool 69°F evening air) further dampens Los Angeles' run-scoring environment. This is a multi-run gap in Seattle's favor.
The Boardevery surfaced edge — core & props — ranked by the model-vs-market gap
Group
Rating
| Pick | Market | Side / line | Model vs Market | Best price | Rating | Track |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
OSU Ohio State Buckeyes Ball State Cardinals @ Ohio State Buckeyes · Sat, 9/5 · 12:30p ET | SpreadFull Game | -50.5 | model 58% · mkt 51%+6.3pp | -105 FD | ★★★★★ | |
 Milwaukee Brewers Milwaukee Brewers @ San Francisco Giants · Wed, 7/29 · 3:46p ET | Run lineFull Game | -1.5 | model 47% · mkt 41%+5.9pp | +146 FD | ★★★★★ | |
 Texas Rangers Texas Rangers @ Tampa Bay Rays · Wed, 7/29 · 6:41p ET | MoneylineFull Game | ML | model 50% · mkt 44%+5.6pp | +125 BR | ★★★★★ | |
 Philadelphia Eagles Washington Commanders @ Philadelphia Eagles · Sun, 9/13 · 4:25p ET | SpreadFull Game | -4.5 | model 56% · mkt 51%+5.2pp | -105 MGM | ★★★★★ | |
 Jacksonville Jaguars Philadelphia Eagles @ Jacksonville Jaguars · Sun, 10/11 · 9:30a ET | MoneylineFull Game | ML | model 53% · mkt 48%+5.1pp | +110 MGM | ★★★★★ | |
Jacksonville Jaguars Cleveland Browns @ Jacksonville Jaguars · Sun, 9/13 · 1:00p ET | SpreadFull Game | -7.5 | model 57% · mkt 52%+4.8pp | -109 BR | ★★★★★ | |
 Seattle Mariners Seattle Mariners @ Los Angeles Dodgers · Tue, 7/28 · 10:11p ET | Run lineFull Game | +1.5 | model 54% · mkt 50%+4.3pp | +100 MGM | ★★★★★ | |
 Miami Dolphins Miami Dolphins @ Las Vegas Raiders · Sun, 9/13 · 4:25p ET | SpreadFull Game | +3.5 | model 55% · mkt 51%+4.1pp | -102 FD | ★★★★★ | |
 Detroit Lions Detroit Lions @ Buffalo Bills · Thu, 9/17 · 8:15p ET | MoneylineFull Game | ML | model 46% · mkt 42%+3.8pp | +140 MGM | ★★★★★ | |
Seattle Mariners Seattle Mariners @ Los Angeles Dodgers · Tue, 7/28 · 10:11p ET | MoneylineFull Game | ML | model 37% · mkt 33%+3.5pp | +200 BR | ★★★★★ | |
 Los Angeles Dodgers Seattle Mariners @ Los Angeles Dodgers · Tue, 7/28 · 10:11p ET | Run line1st 5 Inn | -0.5 | model 61% · mkt 57%+4.2pp | -130 MGM | ★★★★★ | |
Detroit Lions New Orleans Saints @ Detroit Lions · Sun, 9/13 · 1:00p ET | SpreadFull Game | -7.5 | model 55% · mkt 51%+3.9pp | -105 HR | ★★★★★ | |
Texas Rangers Texas Rangers @ Tampa Bay Rays · Wed, 7/29 · 6:41p ET | Run lineFull Game | +1.5 | model 69% · mkt 65%+3.5pp | -187 DK | ★★★★★ | |
OSU Ohio State Buckeyes Ohio State Buckeyes @ Texas Longhorns · Sat, 9/12 · 7:30p ET | MoneylineFull Game | ML | model 53% · mkt 50%+3.5pp | +102 FD | ★★★★★ | |
STA Stanford Cardinal Miami Hurricanes @ Stanford Cardinal · Fri, 9/4 · 9:00p ET | SpreadFull Game | +23.5 | model 54% · mkt 50%+3.5pp | +100 HR | ★★★★★ | |
 Chicago Cubs Chicago Cubs @ St. Louis Cardinals · Wed, 7/29 · 7:46p ET | Team totalFull Game | O 4.5 | model 50% · mkt 47%+3.4pp | +114 DK | ★★★★★ | |
SHS Sam Houston State Bearkats Sam Houston State Bearkats @ Troy Trojans · Sat, 9/5 · 7:00p ET | SpreadFull Game | +16.5 | model 55% · mkt 51%+3.4pp | -105 HR | ★★★★★ | |
 Baltimore Orioles Baltimore Orioles @ Detroit Tigers · Wed, 7/29 · 1:11p ET | Run lineFull Game | +1.5 | model 63% · mkt 59%+3.3pp | -146 FD | ★★★★★ | |
NEV Nevada Wolf Pack Western Kentucky Hilltoppers @ Nevada Wolf Pack · Sat, 9/5 · 10:30p ET | MoneylineFull Game | ML | model 48% · mkt 45%+3.3pp | +122 FD | ★★★★★ | |
 Cincinnati Reds Cleveland Guardians @ Cincinnati Reds · Wed, 7/29 · 7:11p ET | MoneylineFull Game | ML | model 50% · mkt 47%+2.8pp | +112 BR | ★★★★★ | |
FSU Florida State Seminoles SMU Mustangs @ Florida State Seminoles · Mon, 9/7 · 7:30p ET | MoneylineFull Game | ML | model 51% · mkt 49%+2.6pp | +106 BR | ★★★★★ | |
 Dallas Cowboys Baltimore Ravens @ Dallas Cowboys · Sun, 9/27 · 4:25p ET | MoneylineFull Game | ML | model 49% · mkt 46%+2.6pp | +118 MGM | ★★★★★ | |
ALA Alabama Crimson Tide Georgia Bulldogs @ Alabama Crimson Tide · Sat, 10/10 · 12:00p ET | MoneylineFull Game | ML | model 47% · mkt 44%+2.5pp | +125 MGM | ★★★★★ | |
Seattle Mariners Seattle Mariners @ Los Angeles Dodgers · Tue, 7/28 · 10:11p ET | Team totalFull Game | O 4.5 | model 41% · mkt 39%+2.4pp | +160 BR | ★★★★★ | |
  Colorado Rockies vs San Diego Padres Colorado Rockies @ San Diego Padres · Wed, 7/29 · 4:11p ET | Alt totalFull Game | U 8 | model 56% · mkt 51%+4.5pp | -104 DK | ★★★★★ | |
Detroit Lions New Orleans Saints @ Detroit Lions · Sun, 9/13 · 1:00p ET | MoneylineFull Game | ML | model 79% · mkt 76%+2.9pp | -310 DK | ★★★★★ | |
Cincinnati Reds Cleveland Guardians @ Cincinnati Reds · Wed, 7/29 · 7:11p ET | Run lineFull Game | +1.5 | model 62% · mkt 60%+2.6pp | -149 DK | ★★★★★ | |
 Houston Texans Buffalo Bills @ Houston Texans · Sun, 9/13 · 1:00p ET | MoneylineFull Game | ML | model 53% · mkt 50%+2.5pp | +100 DK | ★★★★★ | |
 Arizona Cardinals Arizona Cardinals @ Los Angeles Chargers · Sun, 9/13 · 4:25p ET | SpreadFull Game | +10.5 | model 55% · mkt 52%+2.5pp | -110 MGM | ★★★★★ | |
Cincinnati Reds Cleveland Guardians @ Cincinnati Reds · Wed, 7/29 · 7:11p ET | Team totalFull Game | O 3.5 | model 62% · mkt 59%+2.4pp | -145 DK | ★★★★★ | |
 Los Angeles Rams San Francisco 49ers @ Los Angeles Rams · Thu, 9/10 · 8:35p ET | MoneylineFull Game | ML | model 67% · mkt 65%+2.4pp | -185 DK | ★★★★★ | |
OSU Ohio State Buckeyes Michigan Wolverines @ Ohio State Buckeyes · Sat, 11/28 · 12:00p ET | SpreadFull Game | -11.5 | model 55% · mkt 52%+2.3pp | -109 BR | ★★★★★ | |
OSU Ohio State Buckeyes Ohio State Buckeyes @ Texas Longhorns · Sat, 9/12 · 7:30p ET | SpreadFull Game | +1.5 | model 54% · mkt 52%+2.2pp | -108 FD | ★★★★★ | |
 Denver Broncos Denver Broncos @ Kansas City Chiefs · Mon, 9/14 · 8:15p ET | SpreadFull Game | +2.5 | model 52% · mkt 50%+2.2pp | +100 HR | ★★★★★ | |
 Chicago White Sox New York Yankees @ Chicago White Sox · Wed, 7/29 · 7:41p ET | Team totalFull Game | O 3.5 | model 50% · mkt 48%+2.2pp | +110 FD | ★★★★★ | |
 Atlanta Falcons Atlanta Falcons @ Pittsburgh Steelers · Sun, 9/13 · 1:00p ET | SpreadFull Game | +3 | model 52% · mkt 50%+2.1pp | +100 DK | ★★★★★ | |
LSU LSU Tigers LSU Tigers @ Ole Miss Rebels · Sat, 9/19 · 7:30p ET | MoneylineFull Game | ML | model 50% · mkt 48%+2.1pp | +108 FD | ★★★★★ | |
CCU Coastal Carolina Chanticleers Coastal Carolina Chanticleers @ West Virginia Mountaineers · Sat, 9/5 · 12:00p ET | SpreadFull Game | +20.5 | model 52% · mkt 50%+2.1pp | +100 HR | ★★★★★ | |
 Green Bay Packers Green Bay Packers @ Los Angeles Rams · Wed, 11/25 · 8:00p ET | MoneylineFull Game | ML | model 36% · mkt 34%+2.0pp | +198 FD | ★★★★★ | |
CLE Clemson Tigers Clemson Tigers @ LSU Tigers · Sat, 9/5 · 7:30p ET | SpreadFull Game | +10.5 | model 53% · mkt 51%+2.0pp | -105 MGM | ★★★★★ | |
ECU East Carolina Pirates East Carolina Pirates @ Alabama Crimson Tide · Sat, 9/5 · 12:00p ET | SpreadFull Game | +27.5 | model 53% · mkt 51%+1.9pp | -105 MGM | ★★★★★ | |
MOH Miami (OH) RedHawks Miami (OH) RedHawks @ Pittsburgh Panthers · Sat, 9/5 · 12:00p ET | SpreadFull Game | +16.5 | model 53% · mkt 51%+1.9pp | -105 FD | ★★★★★ | |
Jacksonville Jaguars Philadelphia Eagles @ Jacksonville Jaguars · Sun, 10/11 · 9:30a ET | SpreadFull Game | +1.5 | model 54% · mkt 52%+1.8pp | -110 MGM | ★★★★★ | |
Baltimore Orioles Baltimore Orioles @ Detroit Tigers · Wed, 7/29 · 1:11p ET | MoneylineFull Game | ML | model 41% · mkt 39%+1.8pp | +155 BR | ★★★★★ | |
FSU Florida State Seminoles SMU Mustangs @ Florida State Seminoles · Mon, 9/7 · 7:30p ET | SpreadFull Game | +2.5 | model 53% · mkt 51%+1.7pp | -105 DK | ★★★★★ | |
UMA UMass Minutemen UMass Minutemen @ Rutgers Scarlet Knights · Thu, 9/3 · 6:00p ET | SpreadFull Game | +30.5 | model 53% · mkt 52%+1.6pp | -107 BR | ★★★★★ | |
 Buffalo Bills Kansas City Chiefs @ Buffalo Bills · Thu, 11/26 · 8:20p ET | SpreadFull Game | -2.5 | model 54% · mkt 52%+1.5pp | -110 MGM | ★★★★★ | |
Milwaukee Brewers Milwaukee Brewers @ San Francisco Giants · Wed, 7/29 · 3:46p ET | Team totalFull Game | O 3.5 | model 59% · mkt 58%+1.5pp | -135 HR | ★★★★★ | |
GT Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets Colorado Buffaloes @ Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets · Thu, 9/3 · 8:00p ET | SpreadFull Game | -7.5 | model 51% · mkt 50%+1.4pp | +100 MGM | ★★★★★ | |
OU Oklahoma Sooners Oklahoma Sooners @ Michigan Wolverines · Sat, 9/12 · 12:00p ET | MoneylineFull Game | ML | model 48% · mkt 47%+1.3pp | +115 HR | ★★★★★ | |
 Tennessee Titans New York Jets @ Tennessee Titans · Sun, 9/13 · 1:00p ET | SpreadFull Game | -2.5 | model 54% · mkt 52%+1.3pp | -110 DK | ★★★★★ |