Rodgers is a 3-year baseline of 1.5 TDs per game, but Atlanta's pass defense gives up more than average to receivers—a sign they're not getting torched through the air. In a neutral game script with no trailing urgency pushing Pittsburgh to air it out, Rodgers doesn't need to sling multiple touchdown passes to manage the game. He can get to one and still cash this Under; the bar is whether he reaches a second, and Atlanta's above-average secondary makes that a harder ask.