Williams is a 0.17-sack-per-game producer facing a Giants offense that will stay balanced and won't be forced into obvious passing situations. Dallas is favored and will control the game with the run, limiting the dropbacks that create sack opportunities. Williams' 3-year baseline is 0.3 sacks per game—already thin—and a game script that doesn't demand the Giants throw on every down keeps him from getting home.

Both offenses attack soft early defenses in a wide-open first quarter. Dallas comes off 16 days of rest with a +0.079 EPA/play offense that averages 7.25 yards per attempt and runs 64 plays per game—a pace that generates early volume. New York's defense allowed +0.069 EPA/play this season and ranks 22nd in total defense; in the opening quarter, before adjustments settle, that softness is most exposed. The Giants' secondary is thin with Nabers (knee) and Austin (knee) out, and Colton Hood (quadriceps) and Greg Newsome II (cornerback) both questionable—a coverage group vulnerable to Dallas' efficient passing attack right out of the gate. New York's offense, meanwhile, runs 49% of the time but sits at +0.002 EPA/play; Dallas' defense allowed +0.170 EPA/play and ranks 11th, giving the Giants' run-heavy scheme early opportunities to move the ball. Both teams are rested and scripted to attack in the first quarter; the Giants' thin secondary and Dallas' passing efficiency create a high-volume opening window.

Williams is the Cowboys' lead back in a game they're favored to win, and Savant gives him a 69% chance to score. The Giants' run defense is porous, and Williams is getting 15.8 carries per game in an offense that will control the game and lean on the run in the red zone. In a high-total environment where Dallas stays ahead, Williams will see goal-line work and short-yardage opportunities. His volume, role, and matchup all point to a touchdown; the model's 69% projection reflects a strong probability.

Winters' combined tackle total stays under 7 in a balanced Cowboys offense that won't flood the zone with passing plays. His 3-year baseline is 4.9 tackles plus assists per game, and Dallas's game script—favored and running the ball to milk the clock—limits the high-volume passing situations that would spike his involvement. A controlled, run-heavy game keeps him from the explosive tackle nights needed to clear 6.

Savant's model flags this side as an edge at the current price. A fuller write-up refreshes on the next read.

Dart faces a Dallas secondary that clamps down on receivers, and despite trailing and needing to throw, the volume alone won't generate picks. Dart's 3-year baseline sits at 0.4 interceptions per game—a low floor—and Dallas's pass defense is stingy enough to keep him from forcing balls into tight windows. Even as an underdog throwing more, Dart won't be desperate enough to heave into coverage; a disciplined approach against a sharp secondary keeps him clean.

Lamb's 5.8 catches per game is a high baseline, but the Giants' secondary bleeds yards to receivers while their run defense is stout—a setup that invites Dallas to lean on the ground game in a neutral script. Savant projects him at exactly 6 receptions, and his 3-year floor sits at 4 catches; he's streaky enough that a game at or below his projection is well within his range. At 6.5, the line prices in a catch-heavy day; Lamb's volume should compress when Dallas can move the ball on the ground and doesn't need to force him into a high-target role.

Dart's second touchdown is the real ask here, and Dallas's secondary clamps down on receivers. Dart is a 52nd-percentile passer on a 3-year baseline of 1.1 TDs per game—volatile and thin—and he's throwing into a Dallas defense that gives up well below average to pass catchers. The Giants are underdogs in a game priced at 48.5, which means they'll be chasing, but chasing doesn't guarantee volume efficiency; it often means desperation and mistakes. Dart has to thread two scoring drives against a stingy secondary, and his arm talent and decision-making haven't shown the consistency to do that reliably. One touchdown is well within reach; the second is a heavy lift.

Bland is a 98th-percentile corner facing a Giants offense that will throw early and often as an underdog trailing in a high-total game (48.5). His 3-year baseline of 4 solo tackles per game sits well above the 2.5 line, and a script that forces New York into constant passing situations puts Bland in position to rack up tackles in coverage and on scrambles. The volume of plays and targets in a shootout environment pushes him over the modest threshold.

Dallas is implied for 26 points in a shootout-priced game (total 48.5), which means multiple scoring drives and extra-point chances. Aubrey averages 2.1 field goals and 2.8 PATs per game — in a high-scoring script, he's likely to see 3+ FG attempts and 3+ PATs, easily clearing 9 kicking points.

Dart's baseline is 16 completions per game, but ESPN projects 19 this season. In a high-total game (48.5), the trailing underdog throws to stay in pace, and Dart will need to complete passes to move the ball — 19+ completions is a natural outcome of the volume and script.

Likely's 3.3 targets per game and 11.4 yards per catch average 37 receiving yards, but his role is limited and the Giants' pass defense is about average. In a neutral script, he stays a complementary piece without the target share or explosive plays to reach 37 yards.

Likely averages 11.4 yards per catch on 2.5 receptions per game, and the Giants' pass defense is about average against receivers. In a neutral game script, he's a short-to-intermediate target without the volume or role to generate a 17+ yard reception — his catch profile keeps him under 16.

The Giants' elite pass defense (0.069 EPA allowed) will force Dallas into uncomfortable situations, and Dallas's own pass defense (0.170 EPA allowed) is a liability that New York's passing game will exploit. New York's run-heavy, clock-control approach (49% carries, 31 minutes TOP) is built to keep the game tight and within reach; Dallas's efficiency edge (+1.8 FPI) is real but not decisive enough to overcome a 2.5-point cushion when the Giants' defense is this stout and their tempo keeps the Cowboys' offense starved for possessions. The +2.5 is a key number that respects the defensive mismatch—Dallas's pass defense is a full tier below New York's elite unit—and gives New York the margin to stay close or win outright.

Dart's 3-year baseline sits at 28 attempts per game, and as the underdog's lead passer in a shootout, he'll throw, but Dallas's pass defense is stingy against receivers. The Giants will stay competitive without needing to force 29+ attempts — game flow and efficiency keep him at or below 28.

Dallas's pass rush clamps down on opposing QBs while Dart leans on his legs in a neutral script. Dart averages 5.7 yards per carry on 6.1 attempts per game—a solid runner, but that's only 35 rushing yards a night. His passing volume sits at a modest floor in a game neither team is chasing, and Dallas's secondary is stingy to receivers, which means fewer checkdowns and short completions to inflate his yardage. At 248.5, the line assumes a balanced day; Dart's skill set and this matchup point to him staying underneath.

Dallas's pass defense has surrendered 0.170 EPA per play—the softest mark in this matchup—and the Giants' passing attack, though unspectacular at 6.6 yards per attempt, will find room to operate against a secondary that's been carved up. New York's defense is elite (0.069 EPA allowed, #2 in the league) and will disrupt Dallas's rhythm; the Cowboys' 7.25 yards per attempt looks sharp on paper, but it comes against weaker defenses. The Giants' run-heavy identity (49% carries, 4.3 yards per carry) and 31-minute time-of-possession approach will bleed the clock and keep Dallas's offense on the sideline, where it can't accumulate points. Both teams are rested off a bye, but New York's ball-control scheme and defensive elite status give them the structural advantage to win this game.