Clay Holmes has been shaky lately—his last start was a disaster (8 ER in 4.1 IP vs Miami), and his xERA of 4.06 sits well above his ERA line, signaling he's been fortunate. Pittsburgh's top of the order, led by Oneil Cruz (.389 over the last 10 games) and Bryan Reynolds (two homers in that span), has been swinging it well and holds a neutral platoon setup against a right-hander. The Pirates' bullpen took some work yesterday (Curtis and Kelly combined for 107 pitches), but Chicago's pen is equally available and has thrown just 89 pitches over two games. Wrigley's wind is blowing out to center field at 10 mph on an 86-degree day—a hitter's environment. Pittsburgh stays within the number or steals this one outright.