McBride is the Cardinals' safety valve and target hog at 10.0 targets per game, but that volume evaporates once Arizona falls behind by double digits. His 7.4 receptions per game baseline assumes a competitive game where the offense stays balanced; a blowout script flattens his role. The Chargers' pass defense is built to clamp receivers, and while McBride will still see targets early, the game flow works against him — trailing teams that get blown out don't sustain the short-passing game that feeds tight ends. He'll land at 6 or fewer receptions, staying under the 6.5 line.