Jacksonville's game script keeps Lawrence off the field in high-leverage moments. The Jaguars are favored and built to lean on the run game, which means they'll control clock and limit Lawrence's passing volume in the second half — the window where most touchdown passes happen. Cleveland's pass defense has clamped down on receivers all season, and Lawrence's 3-year baseline sits at 1.5 TDs per game with real volatility (floor 0, ceiling 3). He doesn't need to be shut out; he just needs to stay at one TD or fewer, which fits a game where Jacksonville is milking a lead and running the ball.