Murray's 6.0 yards per carry on 5.8 rushing attempts per game gives him a legitimate shot at a 12-yard run against an average run defense. He's a dual-threat QB with the speed to break one in the open field, and a neutral game script means his team isn't abandoning the run. One explosive scramble or designed run is well within his range given his athleticism and carry volume.

Murray hits 31+ attempts in a neutral game script against Green Bay's average pass defense. He's a high-volume passer at 33 per game over three years (82nd percentile at QB), and Green Bay doesn't clamp down on passing—they're middle-of-the-pack in pass defense. With no game script forcing Minnesota to abandon the pass, Murray stays in rhythm and stays above 30 attempts.