Smith's arm talent is real, but Tennessee's secondary doesn't gift the deep ball. Smith has averaged 224 passing yards per game over his last three seasons—a high-volume passer—yet his longest completion lands at 213 yards projected for the full game, suggesting the Titans' pass defense, which gives up average yardage to receivers, will keep him from stringing together the explosive plays needed to hit 33+. In a neutral script with no trailing desperation, Smith stays in rhythm and takes what the defense gives him rather than forcing downfield.