Emeka Egbuka stays under 23 yards on his longest reception because Tampa Bay's pass defense clamps down to receivers—the exact matchup that limits his ceiling. Egbuka averages 7.5 targets per game and 14.9 yards per catch, but Cincinnati is an underdog and will trail, forcing a pass-heavy script that spreads targets across the roster and shortens the average depth of target. Tampa Bay's secondary is built to keep plays in front and prevent the explosive gains that produce 23-yard completions. In a trailing-team game script, Egbuka sees volume but not the vertical spacing needed for a single long reception to clear the line.