Henry gets the volume and the script to find the end zone. Baltimore is favored and will control this game, meaning the Ravens lean run-heavy to milk clock—and Henry is seeing 18+ carries per game with a 5.2-yard average against a Colts run defense that's been stingy overall but will face relentless work. He's a touchdown-scoring back in a game where his team dictates pace and stays ahead, and Savant projects him at a 70% chance to score. At -215, that's a sharp price on a workhorse in a favorable script.

Henry stays under 91 combined yards because Indianapolis's run defense clamps down on the run, and his 5.2 yards per carry — while solid — faces a stout front. He's averaging 94 rushing yards and 9 receiving yards per game, but the Colts' defensive line is built to stop the ground game. Baltimore's favored status and game-control script will keep Henry involved, but the matchup resistance and limited receiving role (1.2 targets per game) cap his total just below the line.

Indianapolis's run defense clamps down on the ground game, and Baltimore's favored status means the Ravens lean on Henry to milk the clock rather than attack vertically. Henry averages 5.2 yards per carry—solid but not explosive—and a stingy front limits his runway for a 19+ yard rush. Game script and matchup both compress his ceiling.