Achane stays at 14 carries or fewer. His 3-year baseline is 13 carries per game, and while he's a 85th-percentile back in volume, the Raiders' average run defense offers no script-driven reason for Miami to lean heavier on the ground game in a neutral spot. ESPN projects 15 carries per game this season, but early-season priors fade as games log; the baseline and matchup point to a modest carry total. The Under cashes at 14 or fewer attempts.