Jones will need to air it out early and often against a Ravens defense that's average against the run. Indianapolis is an underdog, which means trailing script — the Colts will be forced to pass to stay in the game, and Jones has hit 21+ completions in a consistent 3-year baseline (21/gm floor-to-ceiling 14–24). Baltimore's pass defense clamps down on receivers, but that pressure on the secondary often means more volume and checkdowns to backs and slot targets, not fewer completions. Jones projects to 21 completions per ESPN's early-season estimate; 22+ is a realistic outcome in a game where the Colts can't lean on the run.