Schultz's 9.5 yards per catch is modest for a tight end, and Buffalo's pass defense clamps down to receivers—the exact matchup that suppresses his ceiling. He's seeing 6.3 targets per game, but in a neutral script against a stingy secondary, those targets are likely short and intermediate. The Under at 14.5 cashes on anything 14 yards or less, and Schultz's per-catch average suggests he'll stay in that range.