Chase Brown needs just one reception of 13 yards or more, and the matchup sets him up for it. Cincinnati is favored in a game priced at 50.5—a shootout environment—and while the Bengals will lean on the run, they'll also attack Tampa Bay's pass defense, which gives up more than average to receivers. Brown averages 5.2 targets per game and catches 6.0 yards per reception, but in a high-total game the favorite mixes in play-action and screen passes to keep pace; one of those routes can easily stretch to 13+. ESPN Fantasy has flagged increased volume for Brown this season, and against a secondary that bleeds yards to pass-catchers, a single explosive reception is well within reach.