Ward hasn't shown the consistency to reliably hit two touchdown passes in a single game. Over his three-year baseline, he's averaged 0.9 passing TDs per game with a volatile floor of zero—he's landed at or below one TD in the majority of his starts, sitting at the 47th percentile among qualified QBs. The Jets' pass defense gives up more than average to receivers, but that's a volume play, not a TD play; Ward's arm talent and decision-making remain unproven at this level. In a neutral game script where Tennessee isn't chasing points, there's no script-driven reason to expect him to force multiple scoring drives. One TD clears the bar and cashes the Under—he just has to avoid a second, and his track record says that's the likely outcome.