Stroud needs a second TD to bust this line, and Buffalo's pass defense is built to prevent exactly that. The Bills rank among the league's stingiest against receivers, and Stroud's 3-year baseline sits at 1.3 TDs per game—volatile and pedestrian. Houston's neutral script doesn't force volume; Stroud averages 3.4 carries per game, a sign the offense leans ground-heavy when game flow permits. One TD is well within his range; getting to two against a secondary this disciplined is the harder ask.