Irving needs one run to go for 14+ yards to cash this, and Cincinnati's run defense gives up more than average to the run. Tampa Bay is an underdog and will trail, forcing a pass-heavy script—but Irving still sees 17.3 carries per game and runs behind an offensive line that can create one explosive hole. In a shootout where the Bucs stay aggressive and keep pace, one designed run or cutback lane can produce the single big rush needed here.