Young's 3-year baseline sits at 1.3 passing TDs per game, and he's volatile—but the Bears' pass defense gives up more than average to receivers, which sounds like a plus until you realize Young doesn't have the arm talent to exploit it. He won't throw two TDs; one is the ceiling. Cashing this Under means he stays at one or zero.

Young has averaged just 14 rushing yards per game on 3.4 carries, and the Bears' pass defense gives up more than average to receivers—but that doesn't mean he's airing it out downfield. His limited arm talent and conservative play-calling keep his throws short; he's not a deep-ball QB. Staying under 34 yards on his longest completion is the baseline for a game manager in a neutral script.