Mitchell draws 4.6 targets per game and averages 13.7 yards per catch—a solid depth-of-target profile against a Tennessee secondary that gives up more than average to receivers. The Jets' neutral game script and Mitchell's consistent target share mean he'll see opportunities downfield; one deep shot in a neutral game is a reasonable ask. At 16.5, the Over needs just one reception of 17+ yards, and his per-catch average of 13.7 suggests he's capable of hitting that in a single play against a vulnerable pass defense.