MLB · Savant's full read
Boyd is locked in and May is struggling badly right now. Matthew Boyd has posted a 2.67 ERA over his last five starts with a 1.12 WHIP, and his most recent outing against Pittsburgh was dominant (7.0 IP, 1 ER). More importantly, he's facing a St. Louis lineup that's been anemic — the Cardinals are scoring just 3.5 runs per game over their last 10 and have lost two straight. Meanwhile, the Cubs' top of the order has real bat quality (.330 xwOBA over the last 10 games), and they're attacking Dustin May, who has been a mess lately: 5.75 ERA over his last five starts with a 1.82 WHIP and 11 walks in just 20.3 innings. The wind is blowing in from center field, which will suppress fly-ball carry, but May's control issues mean he's more likely to leave pitches in the zone for the Cubs' bats to punish than to benefit from the park conditions.
Alec Burleson is on fire against lefties and the Cardinals' top of the order has elite bat quality right now. Burleson is 15-for-39 (.385) over his last 10 games and carries a .381 xwOBA — he's squarely in the zone against Matthew Boyd's left-handed arm. The Cardinals' lineup as a whole sits at .353 xwOBA over the last 10, well above the .320 average, and they're facing a pitcher whose underlying talent (4.42 xERA) is worse than his surface ERA. Boyd's walk rate (2.59 BB/9) is manageable, but his 8.39 K/9 suggests he's not overpowering anyone. The Cubs' bullpen is rested and available, but Boyd will need to pitch deep into the game to keep St. Louis off the board — and his recent form, while solid, doesn't strongly favors length against a lineup with this much bat quality.
