Miami arrives off a bye with fresh legs and a defense that has allowed just 63 points across three preseason games, while Las Vegas limps in with a league-worst -0.188 EPA per play on offense and a secondary missing its top corner. The Dolphins' pass rush will have time to work against a Raiders line that has surrendered pressure at a high rate, and Miami's defense—anchored by a unit that has held opponents to 21 points per game—should be able to contain Las Vegas's sputtering attack. The dome removes any weather variable, and Miami's extra rest combined with Las Vegas's offensive inefficiency creates a clear edge for the Dolphins to either win outright or stay comfortably within the number.
Miami's offense is built to strike early against a Raiders defense that bled 432 points and ranked #25 in the league last season. The Dolphins averaged 6.41 yards per attempt and 4.73 yards per carry in 2024 — both well above Las Vegas's defensive EPA of +0.013 allowed, the worst mark in the league. In the first quarter, before game script tightens, Miami gets a scripted opening drive against a defense that has no answer for efficient passing or rushing. The dome removes any weather advantage for the Raiders' pass rush, and Miami's 53.6 plays per game and 35% third-down conversion rate give them multiple looks to move the ball early. A single scoring drive clears 2.5 points in the opening window.
Both offenses will operate in a dome with no weather suppression, and Miami's defense has allowed 21 points per game in the preseason while Las Vegas's offense has generated -0.188 EPA per play. Miami's pass rush will be fresh off a bye week and should generate early pressure, but Las Vegas's secondary is missing Chigozie Anusiem, which could create opportunities for Miami's passing attack. The opening quarter will likely feature cautious play-calling from both teams, but Miami's offensive efficiency and Las Vegas's defensive vulnerabilities could lead to early scoring.
Miami's defense has allowed 21 points per game in the preseason, and Las Vegas's offense has been inefficient at -0.188 EPA per play. Both teams will be operating in a dome with no weather suppression, but Miami's pass rush will be fresh off a bye week and should generate early pressure. Las Vegas's secondary is missing Chigozie Anusiem, which could open lanes for Miami's passing attack, but the Raiders' offensive struggles and Miami's defensive efficiency make a high-scoring first half unlikely.
Raiders' opening drive script favors early scoring in a dome with no weather friction. Las Vegas ranked dead last in offensive EPA (-0.188/play) last season, but the first quarter is a neutral, scripted window where game script hasn't yet tilted the field — both teams open with their base packages and the Raiders will get a clean look at Miami's defense, which allowed 424 points and ranked #24 in the league. The dome at Allegiant removes any weather drag on the passing game, and Las Vegas's 5.54 yards per attempt, while modest, faces a Miami secondary that gave up 6.41 yards per attempt last year. A single opening TD drive clears 3.5 points; the Raiders' first-quarter script is neutral and their offense will have early rhythm before any deficit or game flow takes hold.
Las Vegas's offense has been inefficient in the preseason, generating -0.188 EPA per play, and Miami's defense has allowed just 21 points per game. The Raiders' opening script will likely feature conservative play-calling given their offensive struggles, and Miami's pass rush will be fresh off a bye week. The dome removes any weather advantage, but Las Vegas's offensive line and secondary injuries make it difficult for the Raiders to generate early scoring against a well-rested Miami defense.
Miami's defense has held opponents to 21 points per game in the preseason while Las Vegas's offense has generated just -0.188 EPA per play—the worst mark in football. The Raiders are missing their top corner and a key pass rusher, which opens lanes for Miami's passing game and allows the Dolphins' front to generate consistent pressure. At +3.5, Miami stays within the number or wins outright in a matchup where the Raiders' offensive line and secondary are both compromised.
Miami's defense has been stingy early in games, and the Dolphins' bye-week rest means they will execute crisply in the opening half. Las Vegas's offense has generated -0.188 EPA per play and is missing Chigozie Anusiem in the secondary, making the Raiders vulnerable to Miami's opening drives. At +2.5 in the first half, Miami stays within the number or wins outright before any second-half adjustments take hold.
Achane stays at 14 carries or fewer. His 3-year baseline is 13 carries per game, and while he's a 85th-percentile back in volume, the Raiders' average run defense offers no script-driven reason for Miami to lean heavier on the ground game in a neutral spot. ESPN projects 15 carries per game this season, but early-season priors fade as games log; the baseline and matchup point to a modest carry total. The Under cashes at 14 or fewer attempts.
Miami's defense has been stingy in the preseason, allowing just 21 points per game, and now faces a Raiders offense that ranks dead last in EPA per play at -0.188 and has managed only 48 points across three games. Las Vegas's pass rush is thin with Keyron Crawford sidelined, and the secondary is without Chigozie Anusiem, leaving the Raiders vulnerable to Miami's passing attack. The Dolphins' extra rest off a bye week sharpens their execution against an opponent that has shown no offensive rhythm.
Miami's defense has been sharp early in games, and the Dolphins' extra rest off a bye week means they will be crisp in the opening script. Las Vegas's offense has shown no rhythm in the preseason, and without Chigozie Anusiem in the secondary, the Raiders' early defensive looks will be vulnerable to Miami's opening drives. The dome removes any weather variable that might slow Miami's passing attack in the first half.
Miami's defense has been sharp in early-game situations, and the Dolphins' extra rest off a bye week means they will execute their opening script with precision. Las Vegas's offense has shown no rhythm in the preseason and is missing key defensive pieces, making the Raiders vulnerable to Miami's opening drive. The dome removes any weather variable, and Miami's fresh legs should give them an edge in the first quarter.
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