◆ Savant read Atlanta's ace-caliber starter AJ Smith-Shawver faces a Mets lineup that's been struggling at the plate, while the Braves' top-of-order bats are locked in over the last 10 games. Smith-Shawver's recent form (3.55 ERA over his last five starts) is sharp, and he's facing a Mets offense that ranks bottom-third in runs per game (4.17 R/G vs Atlanta's 4.93). The Mets' Sean Manaea has been solid lately (3.81 ERA last five starts) but carries a season 4.52 ERA and xERA of 4.45, suggesting some regression risk. Both teams are on back-to-backs in a calm-weather, pitcher-friendly park (Citi Field, 98 park factor), which should suppress run totals. The Braves' superior recent offensive form and Smith-Shawver's current stuff give Atlanta a clear edge in a low-scoring environment.
