Detroit is the superior roster (FPI +2.6 vs NE +1.4, #8 vs #14 overall) with elite skill talent (Goff #9 QB, Gibbs #2 RB, Sewell #1 OT, Hutchinson #5 EDGE) and sharper efficiency (EPA/play +0.066 off, -0.023 def allowed). New England's defense is historically bad (#31, 13 PA on 0-1 record) and loses A.J. Brown (IR, ankle) — a premier WR in a run-heavy scheme that now leans harder on Rhamondre Stevenson and Drake Maye's arm talent. The Lions' pass rush (Hutchinson, Campbell #5 LB) will stress Maye early. However, the line has drifted sharply: Detroit opened -54% ML and is now -50% (market fading the favorite by 2.9pp), while New England has steamed from +46% to +49%. This reversal against the data (Lions are objectively better, healthier, and more efficient) suggests the market is overweighting the Patriots' 0-1 record and underweighting Detroit's structural edge. I make this Detroit -3.5 to -4 on a neutral field; the offered -1.5 is a full 2–2.5 points short. The edge is Detroit's unit superiority (pass rush, run game, QB tier) and New England's secondary weakness (#31 defense) meeting a Lions offense that ranks top-10 in efficiency and pace control.