Detroit is the stronger team (FPI +2.6 vs Chicago +1.2, a 1.4-point gap), and the Lions' pass-game edge (Goff #9, LaPorta #4, Sewell #1 OT vs Chicago's secondary missing Gordon and Turner) should dominate. However, Chicago's short-week travel disadvantage (4 days, road, Thursday) and offensive-line injuries (Trapilo out, McFadden out) are real friction points that compress the edge. Fair spread is Detroit -3.5 to -4; the market sits at -2.5, underweighting the Lions' unit advantage and the Bears' acute travel/line fatigue. Detroit -2.5 is the only actionable side. The total at 52.5 is fairly priced given both teams' pace and efficiency; pass.