Buffalo is the superior team (FPI +4.1 vs Denver +1.5, Josh Allen #1 QB, elite defense), and a neutral-field read makes this roughly Bills -2.5 to -3. The market is offering Bills -1.5, which underprices Buffalo's talent edge. However, Denver's short week (5 days, home) and outdoor Mile High conditions (cold, wind, grass) create real friction for Buffalo's pass-heavy attack and travel fatigue. The Bills' O-line has multiple absences (Wills Jr. questionable, Reed-Adams out), and Denver's interior (Quinn Meinerz #4 IOL, Zach Allen #8 DT) is elite. The edge is thin and situational—Buffalo should win, but the line is closer to fair than it appears. I'm passing on the spread and total; the specific variables (short week, weather, O-line health) are already partially baked into the modest favorite price, and I don't have enough confidence that one side is materially mispriced.