The Edge. Genius's sharpest reads.
Updated 4m ago · 43 games · 73 markets priced
⌘K
The Spotlightthe 4–5★ edges Genius is most confident in
◆ #1 · Top read
+9.7pp
edge
Market 40%→Genius 50%
Genius read Michael Lorenzen is a disaster waiting to happen, and San Diego's lineup is primed to punish him. Lorenzen's 5.66 xERA and 1.79 WHIP are among the worst in baseball; in his last five starts he's allowed 28 hits in 24.7 innings with a 4.74 ERA, and his most recent outing saw him implode in 3.2 innings against Washington. San Diego's hitters—Tatis (.354 xwOBA), France (.334 xwOBA, .381 BA, 5 HR in 10 G), Merrill (.320 xwOBA, .333 BA, 5 HR in 10 G), and Machado (.328 xwOBA, 4 HR in 10 G)—are all in peak form with a combined .330 lineup xwOBA. Even in a pitcher-friendly Petco with calm conditions, Lorenzen's command issues and the Padres' hot bats should generate well over 5.5 runs.
The Boardevery surfaced edge — core & props — ranked by the model-vs-market gap
Group
Rating
| Pick | Market | Side / line | Model vs Market | Best price | Rating | Track |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 San Diego Padres Colorado Rockies @ San Diego Padres · Tue, 7/28 · 9:41p ET | Team totalFull Game | O 5.5 | model 50% · mkt 40%+9.7pp | +148 BR | ★★★★★ | |
 Boston Red Sox Boston Red Sox @ Athletics · Tue, 7/28 · 9:41p ET | Run line1st 5 Inn | -0.5 | model 60% · mkt 52%+8.6pp | -106 FD | ★★★★★ | |
Boston Red Sox Boston Red Sox @ Athletics · Tue, 7/28 · 9:41p ET | Moneyline1st 5 Inn | ML | model 64% · mkt 58%+6.8pp | -135 DK | ★★★★★ | |
 Nolan Schanuel Houston Astros @ Los Angeles Angels · Tue, 7/28 · 9:39p ET | Player Walks | U 0.5 | model 71% · mkt 64%+6.3pp | -180 HR | ★★★★★ | |
OSU Ohio State Buckeyes Ball State Cardinals @ Ohio State Buckeyes · Sat, 9/5 · 12:30p ET | SpreadFull Game | -50.5 | model 58% · mkt 51%+6.3pp | -105 FD | ★★★★★ | |
 Milwaukee Brewers Milwaukee Brewers @ San Francisco Giants · Wed, 7/29 · 3:46p ET | Run lineFull Game | -1.5 | model 47% · mkt 41%+5.9pp | +146 FD | ★★★★★ | |
 Texas Rangers Texas Rangers @ Tampa Bay Rays · Wed, 7/29 · 6:41p ET | MoneylineFull Game | ML | model 50% · mkt 44%+5.6pp | +125 BR | ★★★★★ | |
 San Francisco Giants Milwaukee Brewers @ San Francisco Giants · Tue, 7/28 · 9:46p ET | Team totalFull Game | O 3.5 | model 50% · mkt 44%+5.6pp | +126 FD | ★★★★★ | |
 Jo Adell Houston Astros @ Los Angeles Angels · Tue, 7/28 · 9:39p ET | Player Walks | U 0.5 | model 85% · mkt 79%+5.8pp | -375 HR | ★★★★★ | |
 Isaac Paredes Houston Astros @ Los Angeles Angels · Tue, 7/28 · 9:39p ET | Player Walks | U 0.5 | model 71% · mkt 66%+5.3pp | -190 HR | ★★★★★ | |
 Philadelphia Eagles Washington Commanders @ Philadelphia Eagles · Sun, 9/13 · 4:25p ET | SpreadFull Game | -4.5 | model 56% · mkt 51%+5.2pp | -105 MGM | ★★★★★ | |
 Yordan Alvarez Houston Astros @ Los Angeles Angels · Tue, 7/28 · 9:39p ET | Player RBI | U 0.5 | model 67% · mkt 62%+5.1pp | -165 HR | ★★★★★ | |
 Jacksonville Jaguars Philadelphia Eagles @ Jacksonville Jaguars · Sun, 10/11 · 9:30a ET | MoneylineFull Game | ML | model 53% · mkt 48%+5.1pp | +110 MGM | ★★★★★ | |
Boston Red Sox Boston Red Sox @ Athletics · Tue, 7/28 · 9:41p ET | MoneylineFull Game | ML | model 63% · mkt 58%+5.0pp | -139 BR | ★★★★★ | |
Jacksonville Jaguars Cleveland Browns @ Jacksonville Jaguars · Sun, 9/13 · 1:00p ET | SpreadFull Game | -7.5 | model 57% · mkt 52%+4.8pp | -109 BR | ★★★★★ | |
Boston Red Sox Boston Red Sox @ Athletics · Tue, 7/28 · 9:41p ET | Run lineFull Game | -1.5 | model 53% · mkt 49%+4.5pp | +106 BR | ★★★★★ | |
 Colorado Rockies Colorado Rockies @ San Diego Padres · Tue, 7/28 · 9:41p ET | MoneylineFull Game | ML | model 37% · mkt 33%+4.4pp | +205 BR | ★★★★★ | |
 Houston Astros Houston Astros @ Los Angeles Angels · Tue, 7/28 · 9:39p ET | Team totalFull Game | O 4.5 | model 50% · mkt 46%+4.3pp | +120 BR | ★★★★★ | |
 Seattle Mariners Seattle Mariners @ Los Angeles Dodgers · Tue, 7/28 · 10:11p ET | Run lineFull Game | +1.5 | model 54% · mkt 50%+4.3pp | +100 MGM | ★★★★★ | |
Colorado Rockies Colorado Rockies @ San Diego Padres · Tue, 7/28 · 9:41p ET | Run lineFull Game | +1.5 | model 56% · mkt 52%+4.2pp | -109 DK | ★★★★★ | |
 Miami Dolphins Miami Dolphins @ Las Vegas Raiders · Sun, 9/13 · 4:25p ET | SpreadFull Game | +3.5 | model 55% · mkt 51%+4.1pp | -102 FD | ★★★★★ | |
 Detroit Lions Detroit Lions @ Buffalo Bills · Thu, 9/17 · 8:15p ET | MoneylineFull Game | ML | model 46% · mkt 42%+3.8pp | +140 MGM | ★★★★★ | |
Seattle Mariners Seattle Mariners @ Los Angeles Dodgers · Tue, 7/28 · 10:11p ET | MoneylineFull Game | ML | model 37% · mkt 33%+3.5pp | +200 BR | ★★★★★ | |
 Christian Walker Houston Astros @ Los Angeles Angels · Tue, 7/28 · 9:39p ET | Player Walks | U 0.5 | model 74% · mkt 70%+4.4pp | -230 HR | ★★★★★ | |
Jo Adell Houston Astros @ Los Angeles Angels · Tue, 7/28 · 9:39p ET | Player RBI | U 0.5 | model 73% · mkt 69%+4.2pp | -220 MGM | ★★★★★ | |
 Los Angeles Dodgers Seattle Mariners @ Los Angeles Dodgers · Tue, 7/28 · 10:11p ET | Run line1st 5 Inn | -0.5 | model 61% · mkt 57%+4.2pp | -130 MGM | ★★★★★ | |
Detroit Lions New Orleans Saints @ Detroit Lions · Sun, 9/13 · 1:00p ET | SpreadFull Game | -7.5 | model 55% · mkt 51%+3.9pp | -105 HR | ★★★★★ | |
 Jorge Soler Houston Astros @ Los Angeles Angels · Tue, 7/28 · 9:39p ET | Player Walks | U 0.5 | model 71% · mkt 67%+3.9pp | -200 HR | ★★★★★ | |
Isaac Paredes Houston Astros @ Los Angeles Angels · Tue, 7/28 · 9:39p ET | Player RBI | U 0.5 | model 73% · mkt 69%+3.5pp | -225 MGM | ★★★★★ | |
Texas Rangers Texas Rangers @ Tampa Bay Rays · Wed, 7/29 · 6:41p ET | Run lineFull Game | +1.5 | model 69% · mkt 65%+3.5pp | -187 DK | ★★★★★ | |
OSU Ohio State Buckeyes Ohio State Buckeyes @ Texas Longhorns · Sat, 9/12 · 7:30p ET | MoneylineFull Game | ML | model 53% · mkt 50%+3.5pp | +102 FD | ★★★★★ | |
STA Stanford Cardinal Miami Hurricanes @ Stanford Cardinal · Fri, 9/4 · 9:00p ET | SpreadFull Game | +23.5 | model 54% · mkt 50%+3.5pp | +100 HR | ★★★★★ | |
 Chicago Cubs Chicago Cubs @ St. Louis Cardinals · Wed, 7/29 · 7:46p ET | Team totalFull Game | O 4.5 | model 50% · mkt 47%+3.4pp | +114 DK | ★★★★★ | |
SHS Sam Houston State Bearkats Sam Houston State Bearkats @ Troy Trojans · Sat, 9/5 · 7:00p ET | SpreadFull Game | +16.5 | model 55% · mkt 51%+3.4pp | -105 HR | ★★★★★ | |
 Jeremy Pena Houston Astros @ Los Angeles Angels · Tue, 7/28 · 9:39p ET | Player Hits | U 1.5 | model 75% · mkt 71%+3.3pp | -250 MGM | ★★★★★ | |
 Baltimore Orioles Baltimore Orioles @ Detroit Tigers · Wed, 7/29 · 1:11p ET | Run lineFull Game | +1.5 | model 63% · mkt 59%+3.3pp | -146 FD | ★★★★★ | |
NEV Nevada Wolf Pack Western Kentucky Hilltoppers @ Nevada Wolf Pack · Sat, 9/5 · 10:30p ET | MoneylineFull Game | ML | model 48% · mkt 45%+3.3pp | +122 FD | ★★★★★ | |
 Cincinnati Reds Cleveland Guardians @ Cincinnati Reds · Wed, 7/29 · 7:11p ET | MoneylineFull Game | ML | model 50% · mkt 47%+2.8pp | +112 BR | ★★★★★ | |
FSU Florida State Seminoles SMU Mustangs @ Florida State Seminoles · Mon, 9/7 · 7:30p ET | MoneylineFull Game | ML | model 51% · mkt 49%+2.6pp | +106 BR | ★★★★★ | |
 Dallas Cowboys Baltimore Ravens @ Dallas Cowboys · Sun, 9/27 · 4:25p ET | MoneylineFull Game | ML | model 49% · mkt 46%+2.6pp | +118 MGM | ★★★★★ | |
ALA Alabama Crimson Tide Georgia Bulldogs @ Alabama Crimson Tide · Sat, 10/10 · 12:00p ET | MoneylineFull Game | ML | model 47% · mkt 44%+2.5pp | +125 MGM | ★★★★★ | |
Seattle Mariners Seattle Mariners @ Los Angeles Dodgers · Tue, 7/28 · 10:11p ET | Team totalFull Game | O 4.5 | model 41% · mkt 39%+2.4pp | +160 BR | ★★★★★ | |
Colorado Rockies vs San Diego Padres Colorado Rockies @ San Diego Padres · Wed, 7/29 · 4:11p ET | Alt totalFull Game | U 8 | model 56% · mkt 51%+4.5pp | -104 DK | ★★★★★ | |
 Lucas Spence Houston Astros @ Los Angeles Angels · Tue, 7/28 · 9:39p ET | Player Walks | U 0.5 | model 82% · mkt 79%+3.0pp | -369 DK | ★★★★★ | |
Detroit Lions New Orleans Saints @ Detroit Lions · Sun, 9/13 · 1:00p ET | MoneylineFull Game | ML | model 79% · mkt 76%+2.9pp | -310 DK | ★★★★★ | |
Christian Walker Houston Astros @ Los Angeles Angels · Tue, 7/28 · 9:39p ET | Player RBI | U 0.5 | model 72% · mkt 69%+2.8pp | -225 MGM | ★★★★★ | |
Cincinnati Reds Cleveland Guardians @ Cincinnati Reds · Wed, 7/29 · 7:11p ET | Run lineFull Game | +1.5 | model 62% · mkt 60%+2.6pp | -149 DK | ★★★★★ | |
Milwaukee Brewers Milwaukee Brewers @ San Francisco Giants · Wed, 7/29 · 3:46p ET | Team totalFull Game | O 3.5 | model 59% · mkt 57%+2.5pp | -130 HR | ★★★★★ | |
 Houston Texans Buffalo Bills @ Houston Texans · Sun, 9/13 · 1:00p ET | MoneylineFull Game | ML | model 53% · mkt 50%+2.5pp | +100 DK | ★★★★★ | |
 Arizona Cardinals Arizona Cardinals @ Los Angeles Chargers · Sun, 9/13 · 4:25p ET | SpreadFull Game | +10.5 | model 55% · mkt 52%+2.5pp | -110 MGM | ★★★★★ | |
Cincinnati Reds Cleveland Guardians @ Cincinnati Reds · Wed, 7/29 · 7:11p ET | Team totalFull Game | O 3.5 | model 62% · mkt 59%+2.4pp | -145 DK | ★★★★★ | |
 Los Angeles Rams San Francisco 49ers @ Los Angeles Rams · Thu, 9/10 · 8:35p ET | MoneylineFull Game | ML | model 67% · mkt 65%+2.4pp | -185 DK | ★★★★★ | |
OSU Ohio State Buckeyes Michigan Wolverines @ Ohio State Buckeyes · Sat, 11/28 · 12:00p ET | SpreadFull Game | -11.5 | model 55% · mkt 52%+2.3pp | -109 BR | ★★★★★ | |
OSU Ohio State Buckeyes Ohio State Buckeyes @ Texas Longhorns · Sat, 9/12 · 7:30p ET | SpreadFull Game | +1.5 | model 54% · mkt 52%+2.2pp | -108 FD | ★★★★★ | |
 Denver Broncos Denver Broncos @ Kansas City Chiefs · Mon, 9/14 · 8:15p ET | SpreadFull Game | +2.5 | model 52% · mkt 50%+2.2pp | +100 HR | ★★★★★ | |
San Francisco Giants Milwaukee Brewers @ San Francisco Giants · Tue, 7/28 · 9:46p ET | MoneylineFull Game | ML | model 45% · mkt 43%+2.2pp | +135 MGM | ★★★★★ | |
 Chicago White Sox New York Yankees @ Chicago White Sox · Wed, 7/29 · 7:41p ET | Team totalFull Game | O 3.5 | model 50% · mkt 48%+2.2pp | +110 FD | ★★★★★ | |
San Francisco Giants Milwaukee Brewers @ San Francisco Giants · Tue, 7/28 · 9:46p ET | Run lineFull Game | +1.5 | model 60% · mkt 58%+2.1pp | -140 MGM | ★★★★★ | |
 Atlanta Falcons Atlanta Falcons @ Pittsburgh Steelers · Sun, 9/13 · 1:00p ET | SpreadFull Game | +3 | model 52% · mkt 50%+2.1pp | +100 DK | ★★★★★ | |
LSU LSU Tigers LSU Tigers @ Ole Miss Rebels · Sat, 9/19 · 7:30p ET | MoneylineFull Game | ML | model 50% · mkt 48%+2.1pp | +108 FD | ★★★★★ | |
CCU Coastal Carolina Chanticleers Coastal Carolina Chanticleers @ West Virginia Mountaineers · Sat, 9/5 · 12:00p ET | SpreadFull Game | +20.5 | model 52% · mkt 50%+2.1pp | +100 HR | ★★★★★ | |
 Green Bay Packers Green Bay Packers @ Los Angeles Rams · Wed, 11/25 · 8:00p ET | MoneylineFull Game | ML | model 36% · mkt 34%+2.0pp | +198 FD | ★★★★★ | |
CLE Clemson Tigers Clemson Tigers @ LSU Tigers · Sat, 9/5 · 7:30p ET | SpreadFull Game | +10.5 | model 53% · mkt 51%+2.0pp | -105 MGM | ★★★★★ | |
MOH Miami (OH) RedHawks Miami (OH) RedHawks @ Pittsburgh Panthers · Sat, 9/5 · 12:00p ET | SpreadFull Game | +16.5 | model 53% · mkt 51%+1.9pp | -105 FD | ★★★★★ | |
ECU East Carolina Pirates East Carolina Pirates @ Alabama Crimson Tide · Sat, 9/5 · 12:00p ET | SpreadFull Game | +27.5 | model 53% · mkt 51%+1.9pp | -105 MGM | ★★★★★ | |
Jacksonville Jaguars Philadelphia Eagles @ Jacksonville Jaguars · Sun, 10/11 · 9:30a ET | SpreadFull Game | +1.5 | model 54% · mkt 52%+1.8pp | -110 MGM | ★★★★★ | |
Baltimore Orioles Baltimore Orioles @ Detroit Tigers · Wed, 7/29 · 1:11p ET | MoneylineFull Game | ML | model 41% · mkt 39%+1.8pp | +155 BR | ★★★★★ | |
FSU Florida State Seminoles SMU Mustangs @ Florida State Seminoles · Mon, 9/7 · 7:30p ET | SpreadFull Game | +2.5 | model 53% · mkt 51%+1.7pp | -105 DK | ★★★★★ | |
UMA UMass Minutemen UMass Minutemen @ Rutgers Scarlet Knights · Thu, 9/3 · 6:00p ET | SpreadFull Game | +30.5 | model 53% · mkt 52%+1.6pp | -107 BR | ★★★★★ | |
 Buffalo Bills Kansas City Chiefs @ Buffalo Bills · Thu, 11/26 · 8:20p ET | SpreadFull Game | -2.5 | model 54% · mkt 52%+1.5pp | -110 MGM | ★★★★★ | |
GT Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets Colorado Buffaloes @ Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets · Thu, 9/3 · 8:00p ET | SpreadFull Game | -7.5 | model 51% · mkt 50%+1.4pp | +100 MGM | ★★★★★ | |
OU Oklahoma Sooners Oklahoma Sooners @ Michigan Wolverines · Sat, 9/12 · 12:00p ET | MoneylineFull Game | ML | model 48% · mkt 47%+1.3pp | +115 HR | ★★★★★ | |
 Tennessee Titans New York Jets @ Tennessee Titans · Sun, 9/13 · 1:00p ET | SpreadFull Game | -2.5 | model 54% · mkt 52%+1.3pp | -110 DK | ★★★★★ |